5 | Giddy Up

It's been a wild six weeks in the world of veg oils with front-month palm oil rallying 32%, soybean oil +18%, European rapeseed futures +13% and canola +12%. Heating oil has been the odd man out as energy markets amid growing concerns of an economic slowdown and a wave of geopolitical factors.

4 | Pricey Palm

Palm oil continues its trek higher amid ongoing production concerns, seasonal slowdowns, in addition to growing biofuel mandates leaving less supplies for export on the world market.

As a result, palm oil has moved to a historically wide premium over soybean oil, near 5 cents per pound as of Friday's close.

The current premium is a sharp contrast from the lows of 25 and 35 cents per pound discount in recent history and the prior 10-year average near a 6-cent discount to soy.

3 | Flashy

US corn continues to be the most price-competitive in the world among major exporters, leading to a rash export flash sales:

In recent week the US has accumulated 6.2mmt (243 million bushels) in flash sales for the 2024/25 marketing year, half of which is bound for Mexico, followed by 43% of flashes listed as Unknown.

2 | Front-loading

Brazilian soybean meal exports set a record in October, driven by a surge in European demand ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation that was set to go into effect December 30, 2024.

Anticipating stricter import rules, European buyers front-loaded purchases of soybean meal that would be directly impacted by the new regulation.

As a result, Brazil’s October meal exports set a monthly record by more than 700tmt and surpass the previous all-time record set in May 2023 by 10%.

1 | One Big Race

We only have a few days remaining until the U.S. has a new man/woman in charge.

Interesting to look at RIN values by administration, especially as Trump spent his first term handing out SREs like Snickers on Halloween.

It is also worth nothing the convergence of the two in recent months as D4 RINs are being used for D6 compliance.

Policy has always been important but it has taken on a leadership role (for better or worse) in US ag markets as low carbon fuel initiatives are reshaping demand as we know it.

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